Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Economies weighted by GDP in current US dollars (World Bank, latest year). Updated daily.
Contributions by economy
Percentage points of growth. The unmodelled remainder is held at its latest annual growth (World Bank) and shown separately; it shrinks as more economies are modelled. North America here is the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Economies
| Economy | Weight | Nowcast | 70% range | Contribution | Accuracy | Official estimate |
|---|
Weight is the economy's share of this aggregate's GDP. Accuracy grades each model on how much of past GDP swings its final nowcast explained, from A+ to C (see methodology).
What moved the nowcast
Change in each economy's contribution to North America growth at each update, percentage points. Line: total change.
Map
Current-quarter nowcast by economy, % SAAR. Grey: not modelled.
Latest data releases
| Date | Economy | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Expected | Impact on economy | Impact here |
|---|
Impact here is the economy-level impact scaled by the economy's weight in this aggregate.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Economy | Release | Source | Period |
|---|
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
Following these releases alongside markets? Koyfin is a good free charting terminal for macro and market data.
Track record: nowcast vs official
Final nowcast before each official release vs official GDP, modelled economies combined, % SAAR. Last bar: current quarter.
Model versions
Aggregation method and every version of the constituent economy models, most recent first. A new version goes live only if its backtest error falls.
| Date | Model | Version | Change | Error (RMSE) | Accuracy | Grade |
|---|
Error and accuracy are each economy's backtest results for that version; accuracy is the share of GDP swings its final nowcast explained. See the methodology.