World / North America / United States
Evolution of the nowcast
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Shaded band: 70% range from historical nowcast errors at the same distance to the BEA advance estimate.
Subcomponent contributions
What moved the nowcast
Latest data releases
| Date | Release | Source | Period | Actual | Model expected | Impact |
|---|
Actual and expected are monthly % changes, or index levels for surveys. Impact is the change in the nowcast, in percentage points.
Upcoming data
| Expected | Release | Source | Period | Group |
|---|
Expected dates follow each series' usual publication lag and can shift by a few days.
Following these releases alongside markets? Koyfin is a good free charting terminal for macro and market data.
Track record: nowcast vs official
Model versions
| Version | Date | Change | Error (RMSE) | Accuracy | Grade |
|---|
Accuracy is the share of quarter-to-quarter GDP swings the final nowcast explained in the backtest (0% = no better than always predicting average growth). Grades run from A+ to C; see the methodology.